This article describes what “Probability rates of completion Scope for Burn-up” metric is and how it helps and works

...

Introduction

...

The earliest date by which the work could

conceivably be done makes an excellent goal but

an awful schedule.

Tom DeMarco, Slack: Getting Past Burnout, Busywork,

and the Myth of Total Efficiency

This metric predicts the probability of scope completion in several future iterations. In other words if we have two curves describing growth of the scope using Normal (Gaussian) distribution and math statics.
One of the biggest problems for a project manager is to understand when scope can be accomplished. It’s especially hard in the real-world environment. For instance with constantly changing team performance, floating scope, various types of work.
This metric analyze statistic of “added” work vs “done” work by short iteration and predict probability of crossing of these trends using Normal Cumulative Distribution.

In other words if we have two curves describing growth of the scope and the amount of tickets in “done“ status we want to know the probability of crossing these curves in the future.

...

To do so we will use the data about scope and done curves for every iteration in the past and normal distribution law as one of the most widespread law for many processes in the world. Now let’s explore the sql-query calculating required probabilities.achieve that the metric analyzes average of scope changes and done work, and standard deviation for them. The probability is calculated by the following formula:

...

The metric uses following main parameters:

Jira type of work– bugs, stories, epics, etc.
NoEstimate vs Estimate– calculation based on number of tickets or story points
Scope change– take into account or ignore scope change statistics
Iteration duration– length of iteration to analyze in days
Iterations to analyze– statistics of how many iterations will be taken for analysis
Future iterations number– for how many iterations it predicts probability

Creating a metric

See Custom Metric development for details

...