Introduction

The “The earliest date by which the work could

conceivably be done makes an excellent goal but

an awful schedule.”

Tom DeMarco, Slack: Getting Past Burnout, Busywork,

and the Myth of Total Efficiency

This metric predicts the probability of scope completion using Normal (Gaussian) distribution and math statics.

One of the biggest problems for a project manager is to understand when scope can be accomplished. It’s especially hard in the real-world environment. For instance with constantly changing team performance, floating scope, various types of work.

This metric analyze analyzes statistic of “added” work vs “done” work by short iteration and predict probability of crossing of these trends using Normal Cumulative Distribution.

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Jira type of work– bugs, stories, epics, etc.
NoEstimate vs Estimate– calculation based on number of tickets or story points
Scope change– take into account or ignore scope change statistics
Iteration duration– length of iteration to analyze in days
Iterations to analyze– statistics of how many iterations will be taken for analysis
Future iterations number– for how many iterations it predicts probability

Creating a custom metric

See Custom Metric development for details

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